This Week's Forecast on Capitol Hill: A Chance of Snowe in Early September

It’s always amazing to me how the leaders from the small states end up leading the national discussions – Baucus from Montana, Conrad from North Dakota, Snowe from Maine…but, then again, I’m a kid from North Dakota myself.  So, it’s with some pride that I point to the guys and gals from the small places who are serving as leaders for our nation.  With the release of the Baucus Bill, there’s lots of anticipation on Capitol Hill.  The Democrats hold 59 of the needed 60 votes to pass comprehensive reform but, without Republican support there will be no bi-partisan support.  The Democrats could pursue “reconciliation” – a highly partisan and controversial maneuver – that reduces the number of votes needed from a two thirds majority to a simple majority.  No major policy change has ever been accomplished through reconciliation.  And – healthcare reform requires support from across the spectrum of political thought.  Healthcare reform is an American issue, not a Democrat or Republican issue – and, the politicians know it.  The end result is that the Democrats this week started focusing their attention on the moderate Republicans, principally Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME).

Widely known as someone who has influenced the outcome of very close votes, Snowe, though a Republican, is a true centrist who has worked with Republicans and Democrats throughout her 14 years in the senate to foster “solutions”.   She was a critical player in passing President Obama’s stimulus package, a bill that was largely shunned by the Republicans.  Snowe is now taking center stage in the ongoing healthcare saga.

Still, on Wednesday Senator Snowe (R-ME) confirmed that she does not plan to support the Baucus Bill.  She was the last member of the so-called “Gang of Six” to announce her position on the proposal but, her response was soft and conciliatory.  Snowe called the Baucus Bill a “first step” and noted that the final bill should be lower in cost.  So, it appears that her support is not about ideas but about cost.  That is a similar refrain we’ve heard from other more centrist Republicans.  The glimmer of hope for the Baucus Bill is that it did not put forward a publically funded insurance option – an approach which Snowe has vehemently opposed  Another key factor that may ameliorated Snowe’s participation is the Congressional Budget Office report that suggested the Baucus Bill will reduce the federal deficit by $49 billion over the next ten years.  CBO also reported that the Baucus Bill would cost less than the original estimate of $856 billion expected and instead be closer to $774 billion – while at the same time covering 94 percent of all Americans!!   While not completely solving the problem, reaching a level of 94% insurance coverage across the US population is a substantial achievement for the US.  So, we may very well see Senator Snowe reverse course and support the Baucus plan in the upcoming weeks as the cost figures get tweaked through proposal modifications.

Even with the importance of Senator Snowe, Baucus needs to gain other supporters from the Senate.   Senator Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) – another leading centrist Senator –  declared on Wednesday, “There is no way I can vote for Senator Baucus’ plan”, since the bill did not include a public insurance plan.  On the provider side, James Rohack MD, President of the American Medical Association, vowed to “work with” Senator Baucus on his proposal.  For many of the same reasons why Olympia Snowe might support the Finance Committee’s bill, they are precisely the reasons why it would lose Democratic support. Baucus is now put in an interesting position, having to appease his own party while painstakingly trying to win at least one vote from Republicans.  The end result is that we need the back room to solve the problem.  I hope – and, anticipate – that the leaders will get together outside the bright lights of the media, the banter of the talk shows and the real-time discussions of the Internet to seriously discuss what we need to do and, where we need to go.  The nation deserves a civility in public discourse on a subject of such importance to the future of our nation.  We not only want it, we also hope they will come forward with a solution for moving our nation forward on this most important issue…

The views and opinions expressed herein are my own and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Dell Services or its affiliates.