Election '09

A year ago this week, the United States elected Barack Obama as the 44 ^th President over rival John McCain. Now, a year later, the attention of politicos across the nation shifted to the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia.  When the final tally came in on Tuesday night, both Bob McDonnell (R-VA) and Chris Christie (R-NJ) emerged victorious. With the confetti swept away and the yard signs removed, the pundits were left wondering what Tuesday’s election signifies.  It seems that there may be some short-term implications for the ongoing healthcare debate.

First, the elections were by no means a game changing moment since the Democrats still maintain clear control of the Senate, the House, and the White House. At the same time, both McDonnell (Virginia) and Christie (New Jersey) took states where President Obama handily won last November. While the tides can change in Washington quickly, that was not the case this past week.  At the same time, those up for election (i.e. the entire House of Representatives and a third of the Senate) will surely take note of the election results, particularly the Blue Dogs and Moderate Democrats who represent historically Republican areas and the challengers who will be taking on Republicans next fall.

According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index , there are currently 49 Democratic members of Congress sitting in districts that John McCain won in 2008, accounting for nearly 20 percent of the total Democratic contingent in the House.  The results could very well have an impact on the ongoing healthcare debate in Congress, which, as I’ve stated many times, is not about the current vote but the many votes to come over the next five years or so.  Members sitting in highly vulnerable districts will no doubt be wearier of embracing more liberal policies.  In responding to the Tuesday election results, Congressman Parker Griffith (D-AL) noted, “I should be nervous.”

My sense is that the election results shift the debate even more strongly towards the center. The need for getting healthcare reform through Congress has become even more important to unblock the log jam of other issues – both economic and otherwise – that remain locked up in the current environment.

Kevin Fickenscher, MD

The views and opinions expressed herein are my own and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Dell Services or its affiliates.