The Road to Final Passage

With all of the above machinations in the background, let’s take a look at the options for Senator Reid and the procedural maneuvers he will encounter on the road to final passage. 

First and foremost, Harry Reid is in the process of exhausting his toolbox of resources for carrying out effective political arm-twisting.  The Majority Leader will undoubtedly be trading his support of other bills in exchange for the willingness of their sponsors to support a government-run insurance plan. The nuance of final changes in the healthcare bill to meet needs of colleagues – like Senator Bayh – will potentially result in a winning coalition, but then again, the votes are not yet cast – and it could be a losing coalition.

If Senator Reid finds he is unable to wrangle enough votes from Senate colleagues, there are two backup plans.  First, Senator Tom Carper (D-DE) proposes that the states could immediately opt into a national public option while those that do not could join a government-run healthcare exchange sometime in the future.  This is an idea that ameliorates the concerns of Senators Lieberman, Lincoln, Landrieu, Bayh, Nelson, and other leading members of the moderate Democrat coalition.  A second idea is the “trigger” option offered by Senator Olympia Snowe (R-ME).  Under her proposal, a public plan is made available only in areas where the private insurance industry does not offer policies at affordable prices.  The long and short?  Even if Reid does proceed with a public option plan, Senators can strike it by amending the bill on the Senate floor. So while Reid has his plan, I anticipate that the moderates will take charge and move the plan to the middle.  Such a result will set up an interesting discussion between the House and Senate during reconciliation.

Beyond the specifics of the public option, there are three procedural hurdles that Reid must pass in his path to 60 votes.  First, a motion to proceed must pass which tests the vote of the Senate at the beginning of debate. It allows the bill to enter into the chamber so that debate and other amendments can begin on the Senate floor.  The motion requires 60 votes.  The second hurdle is a major headache for the Democratic leadership.  A “cloture” vote would end debate on the healthcare bill and is the procedural motion that Senator Lieberman has vowed to vote against (i.e. the filibuster). Reid needs the moderates to pass the cloture obstacle.   Third – the easiest hurdle – “a move to final passage” must pass, and it only requires 51 votes.  So the first two parts of the process are the most crucial. 

If Reid is unsuccessful in obtaining the requisite votes to pass a cloture motion, he could invoke what is called Senate reconciliation ~ aka the nuclear option.  The approach is rarely used for major legislation and typically reserved for budget proceedings.  But, invoking the approach could result in passage of the healthcare bill.  While reconciliation only requires 51 votes and bypasses the 60 votes required for a cloture vote, it is viewed as a very messy way to pass legislation. Furthermore, invoking reconciliation places a time limit of only 20 hours on debate and allows Senators to strip parts of a bill if they are considered “extraneous,” known as the Byrd Rule. If Reid does choose to pursue this option, many Senators will certainly make the case that a public option is “extraneous” so it is dangerous approach to healthcare reform. Despite these misgivings, if Reid sees reconciliation as the only option to passing healthcare reform, we should expect it will be used.  From my perspective, this creates even more of a divide in Congress than exists today.  Under this scenario, the gap becomes an abyss…

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