Midterm Microscope

I couldn’t believe it when I saw it on my computer. Evan Bayh (D-IN), the moderate, popular, way-ahead-in-the-polls Senator from Indiana was retiring? Can this be so? Unfortunately for all centrists, it was true. Bayh, in a shocking announcement last week, decided he had enough of Washington and announced he is not seeking reelection in November.  A critically important vote for President Obama and Democrats in the Senate, Bayh’s departure left the party in shock.

What is truly interesting about Bayh’s decision not to run for reelection is that he – by virtually every measure – would have won the race. A largely popular candidate who was the state’s governor and whose father was also a well respected politician, Evan Bayh was even a strong contender to serve as Barack Obama’s vice presidential pick in the summer of 2008.  On top of that, the Republicans over the past few weeks had struggled to even find a candidate worthy of challenging the two-term Senator.  Though many insiders encouraged Representative Mike Pence (R-IN), the third most powerful Republican in the House, to run, he refused.  While backing away from the Indiana Senate race, Pence is considering a run for President in 2012.  Furthermore, he received the longest ovation and most cheers at the annual Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington, DC this past week. 

But, back to Indiana.  Many in the GOP are supporting Bayh’s predecessor, former U.S. Senator Dan Coats, who served Indiana in the US Senate for a decade.  Although Coats has high name recognition, he is a former registered lobbyist and, until recently, voted in Virginia! And, the anti-incumbent tea party movement leaders have not yet signed on for a Coats candidacy.  Because of his continued work as a lobbyist, many view him as a carpetbagger who has spent his entire life in and around the political world. 

Bayh’s departure signals the evolving distaste for much of what Washington represents for an increasing number of politicians.  As I have been saying for months now, the real decision-making comes from the center.  With one of the most important moderates leaving the Senate, the 2010 midterm landscape for Democrats is fractured.  Republicans, on the other hand, are beginning to sense that they could come close to winning back the majority. As healthcare reform, the rising debt, and the economy continue to be pressing issues for the American public, Democrats are facing the specter of what could be a very bad election cycle. 

Looking at the election map, there are currently 36 Senate seats up for grabs in November. Republicans are optimistic of their chances to pickup spots in Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, Arkansas, Colorado, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and possibly California or Connecticut.  By most accounts, Democrats meanwhile do not have many potential opportunities to win a Republican-held seat, furthering the notion that 2010 could be an enormous year for those on the right. While the GOP must win 10 or more seats to capture the majority, it is more likely that the Republicans will win somewhere between 6-8 spots to further close the gap with their Democratic colleagues.  The upside of all these results is that it will be very clear to both parties that decisions must emanate from the middle in such an environment.  The downside is that we appear to be entering a period of acrimony not seen in American politics since the 1880s.  Political historians should correct me on this point if I’m wrong…

Kevin Fickenscher, MD

The views and opinions expressed herein are my own and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Dell Services or its affiliates.