Blue Goes Brown and The Tea Party Moves from Concept to Reality

On September 15, 2009 Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley (D-MA) led her little-known opponent, State Senator Scott Brown (R-MA), by 30 points in what appeared to be a potential cakewalk in the race to replace the late Edward Kennedy (D-MA) in the United States Senate.  With a 54-24 lead of Coakley over Brown, everyone assumed the deep blue (i.e. Democrat) state of Massachusetts would remain safely deep blue.  Everyone assumed Coakley would become the state’s next Senator in Washington. Everyone assumed the obvious - except the people of Massachusetts. 

But, 237 years and 36 days to the date, a second tea party occurred in Massachusetts!!  The shock of the Massachusetts senatorial election gripped Washington in a frenzy of political drama over the last week.  The newly elected Senator Scott Brown (D-MA) drove his pickup truck through the conventional assumptions and stormed back to defeat Martha Coakley by a 52-47 margin in the Massachusetts special election this last week.  Like Aesop’s “The Tortoise and the Hare”, Scott Brown slowly but steadily crawled back from his huge voter deficit by standing in the cold to shake the hands of voters, casting himself as an “everyman” and, simply outworking his opponent.  Much like the hare, Coakley even took a vacation just three weeks before election day.  And, like the fable, the hare woke up only to find that the tortoise had already won.  Regardless of your political affiliation, kudos goes to Senator-elect Brown who proved that hard work and determination can win the day.

But, it was more than hard work from Brown that carried the day.  It’s also clear that the political landscape has shifted considerably over Obama’s first year in office.  With the Commonwealth of Massachusetts now electing a Republican to the United States Senate for the first time since 1972, deeper issues surfaced.  First, like the recent New Jersey and Virginia elections, the vote of the self-described independents made the difference. Though registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 3 to 1 in Massachusetts, nearly half of the Bay Staters identify themselves as independents. According to a poll conducted by Politico just two days before the election, Brown led independents by a margin of 69-28.  Even more telling was the fact that 25% of Democrats were breaking for Brown. 

Second, the Massachusetts electorate is seriously dissatisfied with the direction of the country. In a post-election poll conducted by The Washington Post, the Kaiser Family Foundation and Harvard’s School of Public Health, 63% of the special election voters said the country is “off track.” Being off course is a predictor of elections.  Obama took advantage of voter dissatisfaction in November 2008 when 80% of Massachusetts voters felt the country was “off track” and voted for him!  So, like the Verizon ad, the question being asked across the country is: “Can you hear me now?”

Third, voters are also very upset with the lack of collaboration between Democrats and Republicans.  While nearly two-thirds of Brown supporters indicated that their vote was intended as an expression of opposition to the Democrat agenda in Washington, an equally solid 75% indicated that Brown should work with the Democrats to try and get Republican ideas into legislation with only 19% indicating he should work to stop the Democrat agenda.  Those numbers are telling.  The Post-Kaiser-Harvard poll further revealed that “the way Washington is working” was deemed an “extremely important” factor by 54% of Brown supporters and 39% of the general electorate.  A number of years ago (…at least 20+) I thought about creating a group called TTRO or, “Throw The Rascals Out.”  I even designed a lapel pin to support the “cause.” It seems we are there again.  The clear mantra of the day was to send a message to The White House – a message no doubt received…

It appears healthcare reform has become the poster child for the growing dissatisfaction among voters with politicians.  Brown ran a campaign opposing the proposed healthcare reform initiative and the voters sent a nuanced message.  While they support reform efforts, they also expressed dissatisfaction with the process citing the closed-door dealings and lack of bipartisanship as key factors.  In fact, 61% of all Massachusetts voters stated their new Senator “should work with Democrats” on healthcare reform with only 28% indicating that the efforts should be stopped. 

Even political analysts with divergent views were coming to the realization that “the middle” is where it’s at with the American public.  On the right, Patrick Buchanan and, on the left, Peter Fenn, basically came to the same conclusion on a Saturday talk show fest by noting that the American public is “not a bunch of ideologues.” Rather, they concluded that the election means that “people want pragmatic solutions.” With many Democrats incredibly nervous and Republicans celebrating over Tuesday’s shocking election outcome, be assured that both existing and wannabe politicians across the country will be closely dissecting the Massachusetts results as we gear up for the 2010 midterm elections.  It will be interesting in the coming weeks and months to see how well both Democrats and Republicans truly listen to the American public.

Kevin Fickenscher, MD

The views and opinions expressed herein are my own and do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Dell Services or its affiliates.